Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features

Validated model-based estimates

Iacopo Baussano, K. Miriam Elfström, Fulvio Lazzarato, Anna Gillio-Tos, Laura De Marco, Francesca Carozzi, Annarosa Del Mistro, Joakim Dillner, Silvia Franceschi, Guglielmo Ronco

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Infection with high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Vaccination against HPV16 and 18 types, which are responsible of about 75% of cervical cancer worldwide, is expected to have a major global impact on cervical cancer occurrence. Valid estimates of the parameters that regulate the natural history of hrHPV infections are crucial to draw reliable projections of the impact of vaccination. We devised a mathematical model to estimate the probability of infection transmission, the rate of clearance, and the patterns of immune response following the clearance of infection of 13 hrHPV types. To test the validity of our estimates, we fitted the same transmission model to two large independent datasets from Italy and Sweden and assessed finding consistency. The two populations, both unvaccinated, differed substantially by sexual behaviour, age distribution, and study setting (screening for cervical cancer or Chlamydia trachomatis infection). Estimated transmission probability of hrHPV types (80% for HPV16, 73%-82% for HPV18, and above 50% for most other types); clearance rates decreasing as a function of time since infection; and partial protection against re-infection with the same hrHPV type (approximately 20% for HPV16 and 50% for the other types) were similar in the two countries. The model could accurately predict the HPV16 prevalence observed in Italy among women who were not infected three years before. In conclusion, our models inform on biological parameters that cannot at the moment be measured directly from any empirical data but are essential to forecast the impact of HPV vaccination programmes.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere81171
JournalPLoS One
Volume8
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 29 2013

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Papillomaviridae
uterine cervical neoplasms
Uterine Cervical Neoplasms
Infection
Vaccination
infection
vaccination
Italy
Screening
Chlamydia Infections
Infectious Disease Transmission
Chlamydia trachomatis
Mathematical models
Age Distribution
Natural History
Sweden
Sexual Behavior
sexual behavior
disease transmission
natural history

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Baussano, I., Elfström, K. M., Lazzarato, F., Gillio-Tos, A., De Marco, L., Carozzi, F., ... Ronco, G. (2013). Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features: Validated model-based estimates. PLoS One, 8(11), [e81171]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081171

Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features : Validated model-based estimates. / Baussano, Iacopo; Elfström, K. Miriam; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Gillio-Tos, Anna; De Marco, Laura; Carozzi, Francesca; Del Mistro, Annarosa; Dillner, Joakim; Franceschi, Silvia; Ronco, Guglielmo.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 8, No. 11, e81171, 29.11.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Baussano, I, Elfström, KM, Lazzarato, F, Gillio-Tos, A, De Marco, L, Carozzi, F, Del Mistro, A, Dillner, J, Franceschi, S & Ronco, G 2013, 'Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features: Validated model-based estimates', PLoS One, vol. 8, no. 11, e81171. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081171
Baussano I, Elfström KM, Lazzarato F, Gillio-Tos A, De Marco L, Carozzi F et al. Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features: Validated model-based estimates. PLoS One. 2013 Nov 29;8(11). e81171. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081171
Baussano, Iacopo ; Elfström, K. Miriam ; Lazzarato, Fulvio ; Gillio-Tos, Anna ; De Marco, Laura ; Carozzi, Francesca ; Del Mistro, Annarosa ; Dillner, Joakim ; Franceschi, Silvia ; Ronco, Guglielmo. / Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features : Validated model-based estimates. In: PLoS One. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 11.
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